We all remember the 2006 hurricane forecast. At least we remember that the actual storm count fell far short of hitting the number they originally had predicted (a welcome bit of news to those of us in south Mississippi, let me assure you!). Well, a team of university forecasters unveiled their 2007 hurricane predictions today. They expect that 2007 will be a "very active" year with 17 named storms, 9 of which will be hurricanes.
The magnitude of the predictions, however, is not what surprised me most in the news article. What surprised me most was the other long-term predictions that the university forecasters made. Get this one: they said that there is a 74% chance that the "entire" U.S. coastline will experience a direct hit by an "intense" hurricane and a 50% chance that the east coast will be on the receiving end of one of them. Whether they are right or wrong will be seen in time. What is interesting is that the experts are predicting that these storms will be more of a national problem rather than simply a local (i.e., Gulf Coast) one. This may put our insurance situation, and other situations, in a little different light.
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